We have gone this road before. The news could not have been any uglier for democracy in Africa than what happened in Gabon , last Wednesday. Coming barely a month after the military in Republic of Niger carried out a putsch, and sacked  President Mohammed Bazoum , the coup in Gabon must have rattled the Africa Union(AU) and Tinubu-led ECOWAS that has proved to be a toothless bulldog, always barking without biting. Presidential aide on Media and Publicity Ajuri Ngelale admitted that  Tinubu “is deeply concerned” about what happened in Gabon.  Recall that President Tinubu was elected Chairman of ECOWAS Authority of Heads of State and Government at the 63rd  Ordinary Session of the regional body on July 9, in Bissau, capital of Guinea-Bissau.                               

Less than two weeks after assuming the leadership of ECOWAS, the junta in Niger served him a firestorm in his plate. Galloping from self-inflicted problems at home, the coups in Niger and Gabon, must have unsettled him. The question is: why is it that what has guided other democratic nations, and has sustained their democracies, failed in Africa? The answer partly can be found in the fact that every nation is its own laboratory of democracy. As Doris Keane, Lyndon Johnson(the 36th U.S. President) biographer noted, ‘political leaders in a democracy are not revolutionaries. The best of them are those who respond wisely to changes and movements already underway. [But] , the worst, the least successful, are those who respond badly or not at all’. Which category do you think African leaders falls in? The truth is this: many African leaders want to occupy  the highest office in their country, but few are leaders in the true sense of the word, that is, using great power to achieve great purposes for their nations and people.                                         

History teaches that leaders who  misunderstand the direction that inspires goodwill run aground in the office. The sad story  in some African countries comes close to that famous words by former President of the United States John F. Kennedy, that those who make peaceful change impossible, make violent revolution inevitable. Looking closely at the situation in Nigeria today, even the most ingenious propaganda will not obscure or erase  the profound and disturbing pains and anguish in the land. It throws up intense fear of the future of our democracy. The same fear exists in other African countries. The red flag is up in Zimbabwe as well following a rigged election recently.                              

With the exception of just few countries,in particular, Botswana,  there’s a steady loss of confidence in the political leadership and governance across all levels of government in Africa. There’s a great disaffection and disillusionment with politics and our politicians. The most troubling is what Nigerians have been going through in the last 90 days under the Tinubu presidency. Optimism has given way to grave pessimism never experienced since the advent of the present democratic dispensation, almost 24 years ago. If the people will take the trouble to vote, as they did in the last general  elections,  they expect something from the leaders they have chosen.   According to research done many years ago, by James Sundquist, one of the resident scholars at the Brookings Institution in Washington, USA,  at the minimum, the people expect what is possible and doable. First, a concise programme of action that will address the central problems that concern them. These are not necessarily measures that have all the answers, but at least a philosophy and an approach that will give promise of succeeding. These are policies that will give the citizens a sense of hope, of progress towards meeting their goals.             

Put simply, in Africa, the followers have never asked too much from their leaders. It’s about welfare, security, healthcare, jobs, better living conditions. Sadly, the opposite has been the case. Take the case of Gabon, one of the world’s largest oil producers with a population of less than 3 million. Yet, 40 percent of the people are living in extreme poverty. How can a family, indeed, father and son, ruling a country for 55 unbroken years, Omar Bongo, 41 years, and son, Ali Bongo for 14 years until the military struck last Wednesday. The putschists said the recent election in which Ali Bongo was declared the winner, with 64 percent of the total votes cast was highly compromised, citing it as the main reason why they struck. When election is not credible, it’s about the same thing as a coup, if not worse. It is a subversion of the will of the people. To paraphrase former President Goodluck Jonathan in his memoir, MY TRANSITION HOURS, democracy is not just about fulfilling all righteousness by treating people to the ballot box that they bring out only on Election Day. Democracy, he says,  boils down to legitimacy and ensuring that people have the necessary dividends. Have Nigerians received these dividends? Far from it. Legitimacy counts. It haunts if a leader doesn’t have it. Putting the déjà vu phenomenon of coup in Africa in context, I agree with  Dr. Dansa Kourouma, President of Guinea’s National Transition Council on the causes of recent coups  on the continent.                                 

He blamed the political instability in Africa on corrupt and insensitive leaders, who he claims, conspire with foreign interests to explore their countries’ natural resources.  Kourouma, 43 , and a medical doctor and civil society activist,  spoke last Wednesday, at Chatham House, same day the junta struck  in Gabon. Kourouma, was chosen to lead the 81-member Legislative Council  in the aftermath of the September 2021 coup in Guinea, led by Col. Mamady Doumbouya, that toppled elected President Alpha Conde. While the high-octane condemnations of coups and the sanctions imposed on Niger and Gabon by AU and ECOWAS, are in order, changing the presidential guards as Cameroun and  Rwandan leaders have done, will do little to stem the tide of coup d’etat. As Atiku Abubakar argued last week, African leaders should first address the causes of coups, not the symptoms. Indeed, what is happening in some African countries today, including Nigeria, is an abuse of presidential power. It’s a manifestation of dictatorship that has gone far beyond the embryonic form. What is wrong with African leaders is no longer hard to pin down. It is greed in all forms, motivated by naked ambition without a vision beyond their own and family advancement.                                       

It is high time African Union(AU) and  the Tinubu-led ECOWAS, began to review their engagement and intervention strategies on economic management to avoid further political crises. Almost all over Africa, leaders seek political office to bend people to their will, not necessarily to use power to accomplish real goals that will improve the lives of the people and development of their countries. For what is instructive, the wave of coups in African comes with lessons. They are lessons in power. It comes down to this paradox: What African leaders do while they are seeking political office is not necessarily what they do after they have it. They difference reveals their insincerity and shortcomings.                                                  

In 2012, Tinubu was a vocal voice against subsidy removal during Jonathan’s administration. On March 28, 2019, he also spoke publicly against any hike in Value Added Tax(VAT). He said pointedly that any attempt to remove fuel subsidy and increase Vat, would increase hardship and worsen the nation’s economy. Tinubu said this at the eleventh Edition of Bola Tinubu Colloquium, in Abuja. “At this point”, he said,  we must recognise a fundamental truth of our time”. And you ask, what has changed between then and now to make Tinubu turn against the very same people he claimed to be the champion of their cause?                                                       

Imagine Ali Bongo calling on his friends all over the world to “make noise” on his behalf. This is a man who, ahead of the election,  shutdown the internet in his country. He prevented journalists and foreign observers from monitoring the election because he had selfish agenda to  compromise the result. No leader can be great who does not know how to use power. As Femi Falana(SAN) warned political leaders last week at a Labour-organised symposium, our leader should be sensitive to the yearnings of the people or risk violent revolution. Also, the President of the Nigeria Labour Congress Joe Ajaero said on that occasion, that the unprecedented wicked policies of the present administration are pushing the citizens to the wall. It makes sense for President Tinubu to watch his back.            

Our democracy is on trial. Going forward, this much is vital: Before taking any major decisions, a good leader should gauge the impact of key decisions he makes on public opinion and determine how it will affect the welfare of the people. This is an advice:  A leader risks reaching the end point of exhaustion if he neglects the yearnings of the people. Failing to respond swiftly often comes with dizzying consequences. The removal of fuel subsidy without putting palliatives in place, was a utopian vision, not the inevitable direction of a progressive action. Has any lesson been learned from the coup d’etat in Niger and Gabon? The weeks and months ahead will tell. That will also tell the future and direction of our democracy.                                                             

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